>> is there going to be an off-year effort like 2013? should the democrats go down the road of making sure voter registration is taking place and not in the 11th hour? >> yes, absolutely, ed there is an african proverb that one should never build their shield on the battlefield. well, it is shield-building time for democrats. absolutely we certainly plan to do that right here in the state of ohio. well need folks who understand that when it comes to elections, ed, our party affiliation should be placed on the side of the road. and there is only one affiliation that we should worry about, and that is the party of the rt. that is the right thing. >> nina turner, great to have you with us tonight. senator, you have done a marvelous job for your state. we don't have a top five or top ten of favorite guests on "the ed show," but i guarantee i would put you in the top five. >> thank you. thank you, ed. >> that is "the ed show." i'm ed schultz. "the rachel maddow show" starts right now. have a happy and blessed new year.

you're looking at the floor of the u.s. house of representatives on this january 1st, 2013. it is 21 hours into the first day of the year, and we are awaiting a final vote to keep the u.s. economy from falling to the bottom of the so-called fiscal cliff. good evening. i'm richard lui. we will be with you throughout this hour as we await a vote in the house which we expect to happen soon. the senate did its part early this morning by passing a bill to extend the bush era tax cuts for 98% of american households. this afternoon, house republicans revolted against the senate bill. republican leader eric cantor said he would not support the bill without spending cuts. then after a second meeting later in the evening, it became clear there were not enough votes among house republicans to pass an amended version of the senate bill, basically approving changes to that senate bill.

that left the house speaker john boehner with the option of taking up a clean version of the senate bill as it was passed over to them. a procedural rules debate is going on right now. back to those live pictures on the house floor. the bill itself will be debated within the hour. we expect a vote shortly after the debate concludes. let's go to nbc political director, chief white house correspondent, host of the daily rundown, chuck todd. chuck, great to see you. is this it? >> i think this is it. never underestimate this congress in particular. this has been one of the most contentious two years of a relationship between the white house and this congress, particularly this house that we've seen. so don't underestimate their ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, if you will. but it's very likely this is going to get through. it's a numbers game now. it's probably going to be more democrats than republicans that support it at the end of the day. is it going to be 80 republicans and the rest with democrats? it is going to be 60

republicans? and so at this point, that's what is going on on the floor right now. each side is trying to see if they have enough votes and trying to put together the math. but what we don't know for sure is are they fully working together? are the leaderships on the house democrats and the house republicans working together to figure out their numbers? they haven't gotten to that level just yet. but it's likely that they will. but this has been a long day. and it's been tough for these house republicans, because let's remember, richard, these are folks that they believe they had their own mandate in november of 2000. they won nearly 80% of them won with a greater share of the vote in their districts than the president did nationally. and so while the president believes he had a mandate, and you look at the exit polls when it came to the issue of taxes, these house republicans also believe they had their own mandate. that's why the politics for them is so tricky. but also let's not forget, richard. after all this is said and done and the tax cliff is essentially avoided, that's all that

happened, we are setting up for a march madness of budget showdowns coming up in two months when the debt ceiling, the government's funding, and then rest of sequester all runs out basically at the same time. >> as we watch the floor here, chuck, as they're debating the rule, and then they'll get to the vote later on on the senate bill itself, what is the discussion around the numbers? you've been very clear to say we need 217. >> i mean, part of it is look, republicans are upset there weren't any spending cuts in here. i've talked to some democratic lawmakers in the house and senate who frankly were a little surprised they didn't figure out how to put nor spending cuts in this bill when biden and mcconnell negotiated this, that that wasn't done. and they were nervous, if you will, that this was going to meet the reception that it met a little bit in the house. but, you know, a part of today was also meant to be therapeutic. house republican leaders, they get a lot of people like us that criticize on how they manage their members. and in the good old days, leadership used to be able to

jam these things through. we kind of watched how the good old days work in the senate. leadership agrees on a bill. harry reid, mitch mcconnell got out there and look what happened. nearly 90% of each of their sides vote in order bill. they came together and said we've got a bill and you saw what the vote was, nearly some 90 votes. that's not the way the world works with this house of representatives. and i think house leadership has been trying to explain that and if you will, educate news the media sometimes about this. so they had to let them wear themselves out today, the rank and file. they have. they've come to reality of where the votes are and where they aren't. and that's with a it leaves us right now. >> and those who haven't followed speaker boehner, have not followed leadership, they have some sort of approach to this entire matter saying i don't need to fall into rank and file here because i was not voted to represent necessarily the issues of the country per se, but that of my own constituency. and how strong does that idea run true for those who object to

this bill as well as plan b before? >> well, just remember, political compromise has only happened when you feel like you get rewarded at the end, that there is some sort of reward for you politically. you know, nobody votes for these things with their own political bravery, or vote against their own political interest. it's just the way our districts are drawn. and so there was never -- what these republicans are having a hard time is finding the political benefit here. they're being asked to raise taxes, isn't that they haven't done in more than two decades as a political party. and they in their minds didn't get anything in return to take back to their constituents. and their constituents largely mostly are more conservative electorate if you will than what you see nationally, could very easily vote them out. so they don't see the political win for themselves here. and that's what i think you've seen such a difficult between boehner and the president to come to a deal together. the reason a deal happened between mitch mcconnell and the

white house is mitch mcconnell believed in the long run it was more politically beneficial for republicans, at least in the senate, to get this issue of the taxes off the table and then have a straight spending fight, if you will, a spending cut fight when the budget issues of march arise. but that if taxes were part of this, and it looked like republicans were holding middle class taxes hostage, they had no leverage with the white house whatsoever. so mcconnell was viewing -- that's why a compromise happened, because he saw himself getting a potential victory out of this. i don't know if that's the way it's going to work out. but at least that's what he saw. >> chuck do, the republicans in the house now have cover we are passed, we're into the new year, over the cliff by the clock. therefore they're voting for not tax increase, which, again, was the concern here, number one. and then number two, when we take a look at the vote on the senate bill on the house, do they get that cover that they need? do they have the fig leaf that

has been talked about so much? >> i've always thought that was silly. it's as if it sounds like john kerry when he was trying to argue that he was for the supplemental and the iraq war troops before he was against it. you try the make that argument and any political consultant worth a darn could easily make somebody look like a typical washington politician trying to hide behind semantics, whether they raise taxes or cut taxes. so i think that's always been sort of a silly fig leaf, if you will. that doesn't mean i didn't have -- i had some republicans who said that -- that did quote could make life easier. but they didn't believe that was going to be able to make their life easier, frankly, unless the new congress came in, that they actually -- don't forget, we're not really over the cliff. this is the old congress. this is the law that still -- it's still on their watch. it's still sort of last year, if you will. so not technically, but it is as far as this congress is concerned with enacting law. so that's why i don't think it really works here.

>> 39 more hours of the 112th left for that group before the 113th does come around. before we let you go here, chuck, what would get in the way here? we expect a vote in the next hour or so. but what could get in the way? >> well, if suddenly there is only 35 or 40 republicans. let's say eric cantor and kevin mccarthy, the number two and number three in leadership, decide to vote no. well, then how many republicans are going to feel comfortable voting for this bill if two of the top three leaders won't vote for it? as i had one republican member say to me, you can't expect us to be, quote, brave and help get this bill passed if the leadership themselves won't be brave. so that could make things stumble. and let's not forget the left. a lot of progressives, particularly labor doesn't like this deal that happened in the senate. mad at some democrats. what if nancy pelosi can only produce 130 democrats rather than 150, 1 of, 170.

i don't think that's going to be the case. but you're asking how it could fall apart. that's how it could fall apart. >> we're hearing now, chuck, that the vote timing could be as late as 11:15, 11:00, in that range. should we make anything of that? >> no. it's just part of the way -- they have to debate the bill. right now they're debating the rule on the bill. this is all procedure. and the timing of the actual vote will depend on how much debate time each side wants to take. and i wouldn't be surprised if a lot of these members actually don't want to be saying anything. that's why this process could speed up a little bit. but it looks like if you just look at the way the rules work, 10:00, 10:30 at the earliest, 11:30 at the latest. >> great perspective as always. this it is. it could be it. thank you so much. nbc news political at the white house chuck todd. congresswoman, thank you for being with us today. >> thanks, richard. >> we have a sense of how the country will step back from this cliff according to what we're hearing at the moment.

is this how you imagined congress would solve the problem of their own creation that was done a year or two ago? >> well, i'm disappointed, of course, that we don't have a comprehensive solution. i think a grand bargain would have been the right thing to do. but ultimately, the last thing we need to do is three our country into another recession just when we're in a recovery. and so i think most democrats will vote for this compromise tonight. we're not really happy about it. there is a lot of things we would have liked to have seen that we didn't. we don't like those income levels for the taxes. but on the other hand, we realize we have a responsibility to the american people to do the right thing. and the right thing is to not let everybody's tax rates go up tomorrow. >> so you're going to vote for it? >> i'm going to vote for it. and, you know, i'm a chief deputy whip for the democrats. i've been talking to a lot of my colleagues. i think chuck todd's analysis is right. i think a lot of democrats realize it's the right thing to do, but we're not -- we're not

whipping, we're not trying to persuade people to vote one way or the other. we're just taking an informational whip to see where we're at. and i think most democrats realize that the question is will the republicans come to their senses so that we don't really go off the cliff tomorrow. >> just speaking from your side of the 193, how many do you believe will be saying yes to this senate bill? >> it's really hard to say. we still have a lot of uncommitted people. and a lot of us feel that the republicans, they have the majority. they're the ones who are supposed to be running this place. they have a responsibility to the american people to really put some numbers up there on the board. and to say, yes, we can do what the american public wants to do and go across the aisle and compromise for the good of our country. >> you know, a lot of people are discussing the issue of the so-called hastert rule. you know, that's the principle where the speaker of the house, in this case john boehner. >> right. >> doesn't bring anything to the floor, doesn't mention a bill that doesn't have the support of the majority, of the majority

party. in this case, the majority of republicans in the house. that's exactly what speaker boehner is going to have to do tonight. how much credit does the speaker deserve for bringing this to a vote despite opposition from his very own party? >> well, i think it's pathetic that we have stooped so low. because if this last election tells us anything, the american public wants the parties to work together across the aisle. this so-called hastert rule started a few terms ago where the republicans say we're not going to bring a bill to the floor until we have a majority of the republican party, 218 votes. and of course what that does is it creates gridlock, because it has the most extreme legislation. it doesn't have bipartisanship. and it dies in the senate. so i'm hoping that tonight's vote where democrats and republicans will do the right thing, will herald well for the next congress, where people can come across the aisle and work together for the good of this country. that's what we need to do. >> do you expect, congresswoman, for hastert rule then to have --

it's gone. now that he is going across and he is not following that rule, that we don't see this again as a major rule when considering whether to bring a legislation to the house floor? >> i would hope it would be gone, because don't forget, in the next congress we have even more democrats. we have 201 democrats. the republican majority has shrunk. and so to pass meaningful legislation, we really are going to have to put together coalitions. i will tell you this. i have a lot of friends on the other side of the aisle, and i've been approached by a lot of people since election day saying we need to start working together. i hope that's true. i hope the republican leadership really puts their money where their mouths are. >> you saw the president as he came out amongst the background of middle class tax payers, and he made that speech there at the end of the week on friday. and then he also released a statement on his website describing how this deal coming through the senate was a success.

how was that viewed by those on the other side, the jump shot congress members that were very much against this deal? >> i haven't talked to any of the republicans about what they thought about the president's statement. i think the president, like the rest of us, has been very frustrated. we all knew this deadline was coming. we knew when it was coming. we could have worked together in an orderly fashion to have a grand bargain. and i think that frustrates all of us, the lack of initiative by the republican leadership in the house. having said that, it looks like they have come to their senses at the 11th hour. sort of like the kid running into the professor's office to turn in their term paper at midnight. at least we're finally doing it. and at least we will avoid these massive tax cuts for the middle class. that's good news. now we have a lot of hard work ahead of us in the next two months with the sequester and with the debt limit coming up. and i would argue that we should do it in regular order, and we

should do it in a bipartisan, bicameral way working with the white house. >> we've got several cliffs in front of us. chuck todd was describing those. we've got the sequester. we've got the debt ceiling. when we look at the other three cliffs coming up right now, what does this process tell us about what we're going to be seeing in the coming months? >> well, i would hope that what it would teach us is that we really can work together. we can compromise. as i said, i don't like every detail of this -- of this compromise. i don't like the income levels. i don't like the fact some cans are being kicked down the road. but ultimately i think it's good news, and there are some good things. the unemployment insurance is extended for a year. the physician reimbursement under medicare is extended for a year. so there are some really positive steps here. but i would hope that we won't be here at the 11th hour next time, because that never makes for good legislation. >> congresswoman diana degette, thank you very much. have a very good new year. >> thanks. i hope i will.

>> all righty. stay with us here on msnbc. we'll bring the vote to you live. stay with us. we'll be right back. this is america.

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also in there nbc news correspondent luke russert has been at the capitol all night watching this. luke, you know, it started at 2:00 a.m. >> yes. >> there were some positive signs coming from the senate, and boy, that is a long time away from right now. what is the latest you're hearing in terms of timing? >> in terms of timing, i spoke to a few gop aides, and they think about 11:00 for final passage. and just i say that, richard, and just a few hours ago when we spoke we had no idea that this bill was even going to get to the floor. >> right. >> so it's just been an extraordinary turn of events today. it's been like a roller coaster, up and down, sideways, every which way you could think. but they are confident that this bill will be a bipartisan vote, will get a lot of democrats, a decent amount of republicans, and most likely pass by 11:00, latest 11:45. the goal is to try to get it done before the midnight hour, get it done on january 1st. >> you and i have been popping our blood pressure pills all

day. >> indeed. >> since 6:00. what is happening on the floor right now? what are we seeing? >> the rules debate just ended. that's a procedural motion. the party that is in power usually puts forward the rules of debate. so how a bill will be debated on the floor. this sometimes is an interesting look to see who is against a bill moving forward. it kind of gives a rough idea if someone votes against the bill they don't want to have any more debate. sometimes we take that as a sign that they're against the bill. so you're going to actually see after this a movement to about an hour debate on the senate legislation, the one that got the 89 votes. it will probably be interesting. you'll hear mostly people speaking for it. you might hear -- boehner might give the opportunity for a few folks to voice their dissent. but overall, from where we spoke a few hours ago, complete 180. the house leadership is essentially silenced the folks who had an issue with this legislation. and that compromise that mitch

mcconnell and joe biden spent all night working on, it's moving forward and could become law in the next day or so. >> you know, one of the issues was eric cantor, the second ranking gop member there in the house. he had said he could not support the senate bill. might it be possible here, luke, that we will see the speaker vote for it, and we'll see eric cantor say no? >> certainly it's possible. usually the speaker of the house doesn't vote on legislation unless the party that they're a member of absolutely needs the votes. so occasionally you see it. nancy pelosi was there for the important health care vote. but if they only need to get to 218, they can get there without john boehner, he most likely will not vote tonight. as for eric cantor, it's probable he will probably support this, but you never know. what they're saying, what happened earlier, look, he understood that the conference did not want to support the bill as it was without an amendment. they tried to have an amendment. the amendment process wasn't able to get 218. so trying to move forward.

also, eric cantor is very tied in to wall street. and a lot of finance republicans, the ones i talk to who talk to those guys from the big banks, they did not want to see the markets open tomorrow with this deal up in the air there was definitely a pushback from that community as these negotiations move forward. >> we saw the dow react positively there the other day. and then it could go negative again after we have seen a long string of decreases in the dow index leading up to this vote. and that one pop in the dow of over 100 points. >> right. >> because there was word of a deal coming through there. they're feeling very positive about that. >> and foreign markets are opening, as i'm sure are open now in some parts of the world there is that fear that the foreign markets will start to go down on the u.s., and that it could lead to it all going to haywire tomorrow. >> january 2nd in many parts of the world. now one of the -- just to drill down a little more on this hiccup, and those who were against this senate bill, why did that need to happen at 4:00,

5:00, 6:00? now that you and have i the benefit of context of time or looking back and it doesn't look like that's going to be a problem, did speaker boehner know that he had to do that? and he just was going through what he knew he needed to do? >> it's a fascinating question, richard, because i've followed speaker boehner very closely since he has become speaker and when he was in the minority as a leader. and he has his philosophy you never get too high, you never get too low. he doesn't really pay attention to media reports. he doesn't worry if people think his conference is in chaos. and there is now a belief among some members i have spoken to that this was boehner's plan all along, that he was giving his conference a chance to vent, a chance to get their anger out there, and then was presenting them, okay, if you want to try to go down a different route, you guys find the 217 votes. the 217 votes did not exist in the republican conference for an alternative. now there is a lot of other people that say this is boehner just -- he passed the buck to the senate. he got jammed.

he didn't know what to do. there was a rebellion, and he didn't do enough to squash it. so there is two views out of it. but i will say, richard, it's fascinating. boehner's philosophy has been in all these fights, give this rebellious part of his conference a voice, and it's kind of a prodigal son routine. they get angry, they go out, he ends up welcoming them back with open arms, and then they move forward as a unified republican party, at least in their discussions. but we in the media then sort of dissect the interesting divisions that have occurred. and you saw them quite front and center today. >> it is fascinating to watch this. we watched the speaker adjust his political management style and how that may change or how that will change in the 113th congress. but certainly he has faced some challenges in the 112th just over the last two years. nbc news correspondent luke russert on capitol hill tonight, providing so much good information and perspective to us on this day. he will be with us throughout the lead-up the vote when it does happen, right, luke? >> for better or worse, my

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all right. we are watching here at msnbc the breaking news that we expect to be happening within the next hour or so. live pictures of the house floor. they were going to have one hour of debate on a rule. we understand that. they're going to vote on a rule, then have an hour of debate on the senate-passed bill. that's the news that we're watching in this hour, 9:30 p.m. eastern time. then they'll have a vote on the senate passed bill for 15 minutes. so all that being said, just to summarize, as we expect within the next hour or so, or maybe a little bit longer for a vote, up or down on the senate-passed bill that came out at 2:00 a.m. from the senate. it was very much a bipartisan effort. 89 and 8. and then it was sent over the house.

watching that with us is mike viqueira. you're at the white house right now, mike. and what might be the reaction from the white house to what is happening so far. talk about what is on the floor. i'm looking at one of the tweets you sent out about ten minutes ago. you started by saying "holy cow." >> i think we're on the express train here, something tells me tonight, richard. you look at this vote here. normally the debate, we call it the rule here for all you legislative geeks. it is basically the rule that governs the debate for the upcoming legislation. that of course being the senate bill that the house has now decided, as luke was just describing a moment ago. finally, after a day of chaos and tumult on the house floor, that they were just going to sort of throw in the towel and put it on the house floor. and you look at this vote. you see the bottom, the tallies. 165-2. these votes on this procedural vote, these rule vote, these are almost always straight party line votes. and you see that it is passing

with an overwhelming majority, which sort of tells you that these folks have had enough. and the skids are greased for this thing. and the estimate for a final vote was about 11:15. something tells me we're going to see the gavel come down considerably earlier than that, richard. >> okay. you and i will be watching that. what about the white house? any response so far on the developments today after the 2:00, 2:00 a.m. bill was sent over from the senate? what has happened between then as the president or the white house made any comment about what has happened within the last six hours, for instance? >> i think they were sort of laying low at the white house. i think they started out the day with a bit of confidence that the house was going to take this up and pass it. you look at the vote last night. you keep mentioning the tally, 89-8. this were only five republicans and three democrats on opposite sides of the spectrum for different reasons who voted against it. jeez, on a piece of legislation this controversial, there has been this much pain and heartache and struggle and negotiation, that has gone into

it, so much controversy that has gone into it, that deals with such issues that are so visceral for the core and the base of each of these parties to have a vote like that, a lot of people felt like it was going to be sort of a tidal wave coming from the senate side through the rotunda, and to sort of wash away the opposition within the house republican conference. but as they used to say on "get smart," not quite, zig freed. the house republicans met in the morning. it was very apparent there were serious problems. they felt as if they weren't anywhere near the measure of spending cuts that they would like to see in this bill, that they were voting to raise taxes. actually technically after midnight, richard, as you know, they're voting to cut taxes. because after midnight, as of midnight last night, everybody's taxes got raised considerably. so there was talk of putting an amended bill on the floor, sending it back to the senate. and richard, as you and i have been talking about all afternoon, throughout this chaotic afternoon, that would have really thrown a wrench into

things and raised a distinct possibility this would bleed over past thursday noon when the new congress is sworn in, which would sweep the legislative slate clean and they would have to start all over again. >> don't even say that. >> there was such a firestorm raised that house leaders decided finally just to take the clean senate bill, put it on the floor. and as we're witnessing right now, it really looks like the skids have been greased on this thing, richard. and it's going to pass relatively quickly at any rate. >> just to give us that context and perspective, when we were discussing the possibility of a senate bill being cobbled together and passed in a bipartisan fashion, the numbers that we were talking were in the range of the 70s. so when we came out with this 89, that was a huge number. >> well, it's remarkable. and i think part of the rationale that republican leaders used in the senate and they tried to use in the house and they're still using in the house is look, we're going to give in on this thing. the president is holding all the cards. we're up against this deadline. but we will live to fight another day.

and that day is coming relatively soon. it comes in early march when three things are going to happen. the bill that funds the government, there is a temporary bill that was passed just before the election that is going to expire. the sequestered cuts as part of the bill they're putting off for two months, the indiscriminate cuts to defense and social programs are going to come due as well. and perhaps most importantly, the debt court of appealing is going to be hit. the congress is going to have to vote. the president has said quite forcibly i'm not going the play this game. really, the congress has to vote in order to raise that debt ceiling. and it's going to be hard to get around that basic reality. so we can expect to see, and i know this is going to be really heartening, a fight that is going to make this one perhaps look like tiddlywinks over the course of the next two months, richard. >> vic, talking about congress voting. i'll let you go here. we're watching the numbers on the floor at the moment. we're seeing what appears like that the rule has passed.

we're looking at 283 at the moment in that yea column. what might we take from the rules vote? will it be parallel later on on the senate vote itself? >> i've been watching this stuff for quite some time. and i got to tell you, i've never seen a rule vote that has been this lopsided. it's hard for me to believe that the vote on the senate bill is going to be anything close to that. i think you're going to have a lot of -- and i'm looking at the monitor here -- i think you're going to have a lot of republicans, obviously core republicans who are not going to vote in favor of the senate bill. as a matter of fact, one of the things to watch here, richard, is exactly how many republicans they do get to vote for the senate bill because this is a bill that is going to have to violate that basic rule of the house of representatives. and it's not a new rule. it's not just a couple of decades old. it's a centuries old rule that the majority does not pass things unless they have a majority of the majority. but tonight they're going to

have to rely on democrats to put them over the top. the question remains how many republicans are going to vote for this, and how many democrats are going to be required to get to 217. 217 being the majority with three vacancies in the house right now, richard. >> okay. we're watching that rule vote on the house floor right now. when that finishes, we expect within about an hour and 15 minutes or so for the vote to be complete on the senate bill that passed at 2:00 a.m. thank you so much, mike viqueira at the white house. joining us from the capitol is dave weigel. he is for the buzzfeed.com site. happy new year to you. i've been following you all day on what you've been tweeting. and so, i'm sorry, from slate. i apologize, dave. >> that's all right. >> when we look at what has happened so far and what vic is describing which is can they cobble together the right number of republicans and democrats, what do you think that's going to look like here? >> i think you're going to see a vote similar to what you saw

with t.a.r.p., what you saw with the eventual debt limit deal, which people forget it was spiked. at the end gabrielle gifford showed up and there was an emotional moment where some members changed their votes because they wanted to usher in some sort of bipartisanship. nothing like that is going to happen this time. republicans who are coming out of the meetings today are talking about the slight minority or majority of votes. the lowest estimate i heard is only 50 republican votes for this bill. if that happened to be the case, you would need all about 15 democrats to vote for it. i think the numbers have edged up since then. i think there is a long game argument for republicans. and it goes backwards and forward. if you look back, republicans will say these tax cuts that we passed in 2001 and 2003, we're making most of them permanent. this is a huge victory for supply side economics. these are tax cuts we assumed if a democrat came into office, they would have all expired.

they -- right now today they're expired. if we can force them into law for good, we'll mean we might never rise them again. we can take another bite at this. and another part of the long game is what mike was saying. in two months they're going to get a fight on what they think, what tom cole says, lindsey graham says is favorable ground to them on the debt limit. democrats are not convinced. democrats think republicans are going to lose that argument too. but there is a sense of exhaustion and a sense of kind of collecting their winnings and then going to the next table. >> again, this could be it. this could have that vote. we could have the deal. it could be passed in the house. and it could go to the president as vic was saying, and it could be signed by the president tomorrow. we could have a law on our hands that gets us past the fiscal cliff. but the difficulty after that happens here, dave, is that for those republicans who have said -- been against this, those on the right, the tea party caucus, if you will, what will they say to their constituencies to make them okay, make them all

right when they come up for a vote again in 2014? >> i think they're going to say look what we did for your tax rates. look at what we did on the -- your -- the average voter in my district got a tax cut based on the january 1st baseline. congratulations for that. we kept our pledge. i mean, there is always an odd cinderella aspect to this where at midnight it became a tax cut. a lot of people scoffed at that. but republicans took that quite seriously. grover norquist has absolved them and said voting for this today is not voting for a tax increase of any time, even though you're restoring some of the top rates. i think they'll get pretty fwar that argument. they're going to need to deliver some more in 2013. it's going to be difficult. again, they're convinced that when we come back to the debt limit increase, that we're going to have another discussion of entitlement reform. well, they have given up and lost a couple of big chances for

entitlement reform. the best scenario they probably have had so far in the obama presidency was that summer in 2011 where the white house was surprised at every turn how far they were willing to go on demands with the debt limit. they didn't get entitlement reform then. they didn't get the super committee. they're not looking at a slightly smaller republican house majority and a slightly larger democratic senate majority cobbling some sort of entitlement reform coalition there in just two months. and i think they're going to have to -- there are going to be a lot of republicans telling their primary voters well, look, we tried really hard. you just need to send more us to washington so we can try harder. >> it's going to be tough messaging, but we shall see what happens at the end of the 112th as we look forward to the 113th. and as you were mentioning there, the series of fiscal cliffs that are coming up in the first part, the first quarter of 2013 as we're now in the first day. dave weigel, thank you so much, slate political reporter and msnbc contributor. i appreciate your time. >> thank you. >> all right. stay with us right here on

msnbc. we'll bring you live coverage. we're watching what is happening on the house floor when that vote does happen, we'll be at it. we'll be right back.

this has been one of the days on the hill where the story has literally changed from hour to hour. a volatile new year's day. so much happening in the capitol. and this is what happened. just to take you back, in case you're just joining us. beginning in the wee hours, around 2:00 a.m., the senate passed a compromise cliff deal with a resounding 89 yea, but no senator claims true victory there. 30 minutes later, the president releases a statement lauding the agreement and saying it allows the economy to grow and the deficit to shrink. around lunch time, the vice president meets with the house democratic caucus to sell his carefully constructed but fragile deal that he put together with mitch mcconnell. at about the same time, the house gop convenes. we quickly learn that house republicans may be staging a revolt. majority leader here eric cantor and his peers begin rallying for amendments to that bill.

namely that. >> want to add about $330 billion in spending cuts to that bill. then at 5:30 this evening, the house gop conference meets again. by now, the senate has warned them they will not entertain any amendments, in other words, if it comes to them. that will not put it to the floor. and sure enough, gop opposition cannot gather enough support to pass those amendments anyway. which brings us to tonight. live on the floor at the moment, we look. house members preparing to vote on exactly what the senate suggested. we're watching this as it is being voted on. there were four things that needed to happen as they convened again this evening. we are now what we expect to be about an hour and 15 minutes away, roughly before we understand what the vote outcome is on the senate-passed bill. we expect them to start debate on the senate-passed bill on the floor. and we will be dipping in throughout that one it does start so that we can hear what

some of the members are thinking regarding this bill. joining us now is congressman steve israel, democrat from new york and head of the democratic congressional campaign committee. congressman, you and i got to speak a little bit earlier. you're to be head down there in just a moment. what are you hearing at the moment in terms of where this might go? >> well, i feel -- i mean, i hate to say it, because this is like deja vu all over again. and i repeatedly said i think we're close, and i think we're there, only to have house republicans pull the rug out from under us, throw a temper tantrum and walk away. but this time i think they mean it. and i can tell you that there will be enough democratic votes in the house of representatives to pass this bill, protect the middle class, get us some deficit reduction, and move us forward instead of off cliffs. so we will provide the votes. we'll provide the adult supervision that is necessary to govern, to provide for compromise, consensus and pragmatism and move us forward.

>> okay. we're watching debate right now. what issues do you expect to be brought up as we listen to different members throughout the next hour or so? >> well, look. show me a member of congress and i'll show you a speech waiting to be given. and so different members will have their right to express themselves on this. but what counts is the bottom line. the bottom line is 218 votes. and i hope and i believe that we're going to get to that point very soon. >> when you get down to the floor, how many democrats do you expect to good along with this? >> i don't know how many democrats we're going to have at the end of the day. i'm more interested in knowing how many republicans are going to step up and show us an ability to compromise and show us that they're more interested in moving the country forward and that protecting their own partisan politics. as i've said before, and i've said this almost from day one, house democrats will provide the votes necessary to get us off this cliff, to protect the middle class, to protect social security and medicare. so we will be there. unfortunately, most house republicans in the tea party caucus have been awol, missing

in action. even when we gave them what they wanted, they said no to what they wanted. and so i will be satisfied when i see 218 votes counted on the board, and i will tell you again that house democrats will provide the difference on a deal that the president supports, the vice president supports, harry reid support, mitch mcconnell, for goodness sake sorts. 89 senators support . >> what is your thought on boehner to take to it the floor, have an upper down vote here? we've been talking tonight about the hastert rule. and now this would be the first time where the hastert rule is not being followed. what does this say about what will be happening going forward in the 113th congress? do you think this is a new leaf, if you will? >> well, it is the first time, and it is about time. we are sent here to see if we can find common ground not to have these ridiculous turnover republican rules that say you don't even bring a vote to the

floor unless you have a majority of republicans agree to it. this should be a deliberate place, not a partisan place. i think the speaker realized he had no choice. he had run out of time. you know, we are off the cliff. so we had only one decision to make, and that is find a way to get this on the floor. he had to go through some twists and some turns and some gyrations to get to it. that's all very well and good. let's just vote and move this country forward. >> what do you say to voters in your district regarding some of the things that democrats are not happy about? for instance, the threshold of 400 and 450,000? >> actually, i supported that threshold. the president says -- has said that $250,000 initially should have been the cut off, that that makes you wealthy. it does make you wealthy in some areas of the country. it does not make you wealthy in my particular district or other high cost of living districts around the country. so i think that 400, $450,000 threshold is number one, good policy. but it also reflects an ability of democrats to compromise. the reflects the deal to compromise. the republicans wouldn't even support a million dollar

threshold. we were willing to go from 250, to 450, this at the end of the day requires compromise. i think most people support that and support a willingness to show that compromise, so long as you are not giving up on your principles. >> all right, congressman steve israel, it has been jam-packed with events there in washington, d.c., thank you so much. thank you. all right, debate is under way as you look at the pictures on the left-hand side there. we'll watch that plus much more, we'll be right back. resources they need. bright students are getting lost in the shuffle. and administration's work gets more complex every year. when you look at these issues, do you see problems or opportunities? with an advanced degree in education from capella university, you'll have the knowledge to meet these challenges and make a difference in the lives of students.

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every tax cut. and i remember many of straight to capitol hill, the house floor, we seldom get to say that at 9:54 p.m. in the evening they are working. at the moment, a debate has started on the senate bill, and they will vote on the senate bill and we could have a piece of legislation by tomorrow if it is forwarded to the president as it makes its way through the house right now. they're going through the debate, we heard from michigan, darrell issa from california, a very prominent republican, let's take a listen. >> a new congress is going to do what we're not going to do here today is not something i can bring myself to do. i would like to vote for this. because i do vote for lower taxes. i want americans to have lower taxes, but the other day in conference one of my colleagues

pointed out that if in fact, you're spending the money you're taxing our future generation. we are taxing $1.2 trillion next year. we are taxing $1.2 trillion. we won't collect it, but we are taxing $1.2 trillion in deficit. the chairman of the ways and means committee, mr. camp, also said we're not making it more simple, better or fairer. we're not getting rid of the nascar loophole, we're not getting rid of the electric motor scooter low speed loophole. we're not getting rid of a whole lot of tax things that are still here. but most importantly we're not taking things that the president himself said he would be for. like getting the calculation of chained cpi, the consumer price index, social security, medicare, and pensions right which would, in fact, reduce the deficit going forward. so because of what we're not

doing i cannot believe that this tax cut will in fact be followed with the spending cuts to offset any part of the -- sorry, the $4 trillion we're putting on the backs of future generations. so i thank all of you who will vote for it. i cannot bring myself to vote for it tonight and i yield back. >> 15 seconds. >> all right, congressman darrell issa, there, as you see him speak, they're going through debate right now, expect to have an hour of that. that should be about another 45 minutes. then again, a vote on the senate bill. it is expected that it would pass, people are cautiously optimistic who are watching this right now. we are going to stay with this for you on capitol hill. there on the house floor as they go through the debate and then vote very shortly. stay here with us on "msnbc." we'll have a lot more on the other side.